SWODY1
SPC AC 281932
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA AND
SRN MD...
...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NY SWD THROUGH CNTRL VA...WRN NC...SERN GA
AND THE ERN FL PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING ALONG MOIST
AXIS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR FROM THE CNTRL-ERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH ERN VA. DESPITE AXIS OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...A SLY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NWD THROUGH ERN VA DOWNSTREAM FROM
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SWLY 50-60 KT
MID LEVEL FLOW EXIST ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS JET STRUCTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE. SOME ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER ERN NC INTO ERN VA INCLUDING
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...OH VALLEY REGION...
POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
WITHIN UPPER LOW CENTER AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL OWING
TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
...NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA...
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMMA-HEAD
FEATURE OVER NRN FL AND EXTREME SERN GA AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST
ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION ALSO
REMAINS MARGINAL OWING TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-35
KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS. THE THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL.. 04/28/2008
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