Sunday, April 13, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131622
SWODY1
SPC AC 131618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2008

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN FL...
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM FMY TO VRB AT 16Z WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SWD
THROUGH THE SRN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A FAIRLY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH WARM NOSE INVOF
700 MB AND TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 DEG C AT 400 MB...PER 12Z RAOBS
AND RECENT ACARS. IN ADDITION...WEAK W/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE. STILL...AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..ERN WA/ID PANHANDLE...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NW COAST THROUGH EARLY MON. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD
TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES...MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL
RAOBS THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...SHOULD
RESULT IN ONLY MINIMAL CHARGE SEPARATION WITH A COUPLE OF SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE.

.GRAMS.. 04/13/2008

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