SWODY2
SPC AC 031730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID
MS AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY...WHILE SRN STREAM WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE
SWRN STATES WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX WILL
MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..SERN U.S. THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX....
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO NERN TX EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A SWLY 40 TO
50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. WARM
SECTOR. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MIX OUT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE. MID-UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE MAY LIFT NEWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM VORT MAX. THIS MAY
SERVE TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SLIGHTLY AND ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING
BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. OTHER MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..CAROLINAS...
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THIS REGION. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS/DESTABILIZES
AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THIS AREA FROM THE WEST.
.DIAL.. 04/03/2008
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