SWODY2
SPC AC 220557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN THROUGH PARTS OF
THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPACT BUT STRONG
UPPER JET MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH TX DURING THE DAY. OTHER IMPULSES
WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH. WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER SRN OK
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE
WILL SETUP ACROSS THE SRN THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN PLAINS...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL EXIST OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-8 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM PARTS OF
NWRN TX INTO OK...AND TIMING OF SRN STREAM JET MAX WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EARLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN TX. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TIME OUT INTO SWRN TX LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE JET
MAX MOVES THROUGH THE TX WARM SECTOR. COUPLED LOW LEVEL AND MID
LEVEL JETS ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH TX AND POSSIBLY SRN
OK LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE PATH OF THE JET
STREAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THREAT IN OK APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY THAT STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
ATTENDING THE JET MAX COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE. IF EARLY
STORMS WEAKEN OR ARE NOT TOO WIDESPREAD...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL JET. DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN
THIS REGION...BUT COMPENSATED FOR BY COLD AIR ALOFT. STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING IMPULSE.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/22/2008
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