SWODY3
SPC AC 210730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO SWRN KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY EJECT EWD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS EJECTING A SRN
STREAM SPEED MAX INTO WRN TX DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS TX TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO NWRN TX EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY. A DRYLINE WILL SETUP OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
...SRN PLAINS...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ELEVATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COULD BE IMPEDED SOMEWHAT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT MAY ADVANCE NWD INTO SRN OK. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX
AS EJECTING UPPER JET MAX ENHANCES DEEP ASCENT ALONG DRYLINE AS IT
MIXES EWD. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN TX AND OK
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN UPPER
JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL JET. BULKS SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NRN TX AND OK DURING THE EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGHER END PROBABILITIES ONCE UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND AS DEEP ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE AREA. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 04/21/2008
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