SWODY3
SPC AC 280649
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THIS FCST WILL BE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN
PACIFIC...NEAR 140W FROM ABOUT 40N NWD ACROSS GULF OF AK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FCST TO ROTATE AROUND CENTROID OF THIS CYCLONE
AS IT MOVES/REDEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND CANADIAN ROCKIES
REGIONS THROUGH DAY-3. BY 30/18Z...THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN EWD
MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS GREAT PLAINS STATES...AND
SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM TX PANHANDLE TO WRN DAKOTAS.
IN RESPONSE...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM MT SSEWD ACROSS
W TX...WITH INITIAL/EMBEDDED LOWS FORMING OVER ERN MT AND WRN
DAKOTAS. THESE LOWS SHOULD WEAKEN EARLY IN PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND
WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY STG CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION BY
1/00Z. AT THAT TIME...FRONTAL ZONE AND COLLOCATED INVERTED TROUGH
SHOULD ARC NEWD FROM LATTER LOW ACROSS SERN SD...THEN EXTEND NWWD
INTO RESIDUAL/ORIGINAL LOW OVER SASK. WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED FROM SRN APPALACHIANS NWWD ACROSS LOWER OH/MO
VALLEYS...THEN WSWWD INTO DEEPENING KS/CO LOW. DRYLINE GRADUALLY
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED S AND SSE OF SFC LOW ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
KS/OK/TX...AS EARLY PHASE OF MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR FROM GULF
BEGINS TO MOVE NWD TO ITS E.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REGIME SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH DAY-3 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM/NRN MEX AND W TX...ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED STG CAPPING...AS WELL AS
INADEQUATE/IMMATURE MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY BEFORE
1/00Z...MEANS SVR POTENTIAL INVOF DRYLINE IS TOO CONDITIONAL AND
SMALL TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z PRIMARILY IN ZONE OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...NW-NE OF SFC LOW
NEAR WRN PORTION OF WAA CONVEYOR. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MRGL
MOISTURE SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...AND STG GUSTS ALSO MAY
OCCUR GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS THAT ARE LIKELY.
..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2008
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