SWODY3
SPC AC 230758
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO A PART OF WI...
CORRECTED FOR 5% OUTLOOK LINE
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX EARLY FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SWWD
THROUGH S CNTRL OR S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...SW THROUGH NE TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL TX WARM SECTOR
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. A MIX OF MULTICELL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
OWING TO SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIR EMANATING FROM SERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE MOIST
AXIS WILL REMAIN NARROW IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...
THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EARLY STORMS EVOLVE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A PORTION OF
THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 04/23/2008
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