Sunday, April 13, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130823
SWOD48
SPC AC 130822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2008

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...IN TERMS OF
ITS HANDLING OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DAY 5 /THU. APR. 17/. DESPITE
INCREASING CERTAINTY WITH THE EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE...SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS REMAIN -- INCLUDING THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN AND THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT.

ATTM...OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF A RISK AREA...WITH CONFIDENCE
LESSENED FURTHER BY THE AFOREMENTIONED QUESTIONS REGARDING
MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN.
THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS FORECAST...DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A LOWER-END SEVERE EVENT DAY 5 ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXPANDING EWD TO INCLUDE THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6.

.GOSS.. 04/13/2008

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