SWOD48
SPC AC 180919
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WRN STATES WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE EAST THROUGH DAY 5. OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WRN TX NWD INTO OK WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE.
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS.
HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED STORMS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG EML WITH SWLY
FLOW ALOFT AND TENDENCY FOR IMPULSES EMANATING FROM UPPER TROUGH TO
EJECT NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND POSE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SWD PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN. THE SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT
AS WELL AS THE DRYLINE MAY AT SOME POINT BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME. A RISK AREA MAY NEED
TO BE REINTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED.
..DIAL.. 04/18/2008
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