Tuesday, April 22, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220853
SWOD48
SPC AC 220852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4. BEYOND DAY 4 THE
GFS BEGINS TO DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE ECMWF AND MREF ENSEMBLE
WHICH HAVE DEMONSTRATED BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...DAY 4...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES DAY 4. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG MUCH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. FARTHER SOUTH INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT THE STRONGER FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. NET RESULT
IS THAT ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDE INTRODUCING
AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. A RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS...POSSIBLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY REGIONS.

...DAY 5 AND BEYOND....

ECMWF DRIVES FRONT TO THE TX COAST EARLY DAY 5. FARTHER EAST FROM
THE SERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THESE
REGIONS. BEYOND DAY 5...ECMWF INDICATES OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN
THE EAST WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SURGE CONTRIBUTING TO OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER THE GULF BY LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 8.

..DIAL.. 04/22/2008

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