Wednesday, April 23, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230902
SWOD48
SPC AC 230901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH ABOUT DAY 6 WITH
THE TRANSITION TO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME. BY DAY 5 THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN STATES.

...DAY 4...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...SWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES AND WWD INTO S TX WHERE IT WILL PROBABLY STALL. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST-FRONTAL WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN MOST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PARTS OF S TX WHERE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BELOW STEEP LAPSE RATES.

...DAY 5...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH TX. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF IN RESPONSE TO THE
IMPULSE. IN EITHER CASE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXIST FROM S TX INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S. AS THIS FRONT
INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...DAY 6-7...

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED THIS PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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