SWOD48
SPC AC 280842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM GULF OF AK SWD ALONG 140W TO NEAR 40N -- IS FCST TO MIGRATE
SEWD OVER NWRN CONUS AND SWRN CANADA THROUGH DAY-3...THEN REDEVELOP
SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DAYS 4-5/1ST-3RD. BEGINNING ABOUT MIDDLE
OF DAY-4...OR 02/00Z...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS SHORTWAVE DETAILS MORE STRONGLY IMPACT
GEOMETRY OF SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION. MREF GUIDANCE IS
UNAVAILABLE...HOWEVER...STG CONSENSUS IS TAKING SHAPE AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/SPECTRAL/UK PROGS REGARDING BASIC DAY-4 PATTERN
-- STG MID/UPPER VORTEX ALOFT...DEEPENING THEN OCCLUDING SFC CYCLONE
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS NRN KS/ERN NEB...TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND DRYLINE SSWWD FROM LOW ACROSS
PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...CENTRAL OK...AND N-CENTRAL OR NW TX.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SVR
POTENTIAL FROM NEAR AND E OF SFC LOW SWD TOWARD ARKLATEX/SE OK
REGION. DEEP-LAYER LOW IS FCST TO OCCLUDE DEEPLY AND BEGIN FILLING
DAY-5/2ND-3RD...WITH TOO MUCH PROG SPREAD FROM THEN ONWARD TO ASSIGN
ADDITIONAL SVR-DAY AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2008
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