SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012231
NYZ000-PAZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...PORTIONS OF NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012231Z - 012330Z
DEEP CONFLUENT SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO
WARM CONSIDERABLY BOOSTING SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES INTO THE 7-8C/KM
RANGE. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY STRONG KINEMATIC SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW-TOPPED...MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW
POTENTIAL. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 45KT WITH THUNDER AT KJST
AND THIS COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR WITH OTHER STRONG STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF PA AND NY FOR FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
.DARROW.. 04/01/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
40677790 42347637 43097401 42187375 40617610
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