SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031451
MOZ000-031615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031451Z - 031615Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A BROADLY ARCING BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NEAR TOP TO W OF SGF AS OF 1440Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WHICH IS INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO EWD
PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS. RUC PROXIMITY AND
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ROOTED
IN A NEAR SATURATED 850-800 MB LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
COUPLED WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH MUCAPES INCREASING
TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 40-45
KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
.MEAD.. 04/03/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
36689394 37549455 38619454 39149429 39299359 39389283
39009200 38229131 37259158 36689245 36599324
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