SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031716
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031716Z - 031815Z
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LOCATED UPSTREAM IN WRN TN/NRN MS WILL PROGRESS
EWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF MS/AL THIS MORNING...WITH A CU FIELD
DEVELOPING AS HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA. TO THE EAST IN GEORGIA...LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING...AND A SHARP AXIS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS FROM
N/CNTRL AL THROUGH SWRN GA. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTRL MS/AL.
AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN WRN TN/NRN MS MOVES EWD INTO MORE
FAVORABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...EXPECT INITIAL INTENSIFICATION
ACROSS NRN MS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
DEVELOPING CU NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF CONFLUENCE
ACROSS N/CNTRL AL. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH 40 TO 60 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND NEAR
200 M2/S2 SFC-3KM SRH...SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST...MAINLY ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM
MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS WILL MEAN A
LIMITED WINDOW FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
.HURLBUT.. 04/03/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
32709028 33569098 34489054 34928788 34568615 33128516
32288588 32108799 32318906
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