SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052241
FLZ000-GAZ000-060015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...THE CNTRL FL PEN INTO NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168...
VALID 052241Z - 060015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168
CONTINUES.
BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. WW 168 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME
LOCALLY...BUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF A CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA HAS ALLOWED STRONGER HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF MELBOURNE/ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH IS ONLY WEAK TO
MODERATE IN STRENGTH. BUT...MIXED LAYER OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
UNSATURATED/SEASONABLY COOL PROFILES MAY STILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS
THROUGH AROUND 06/00Z...BEFORE FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD POOL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
GRADUALLY MIGRATING INLAND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MAY
BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH. BUT...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVELS NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF LINE MAY BE A
BIT MORE MODEST THAN PERHAPS EARLIER SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING. AND...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUST
FRONT WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY BE
NEAR/JUST INLAND OF WEST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS... INTO THE VICINITY
OF TAMPA BY 06/01-02Z...WHERE A MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL.
.KERR.. 04/05/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
27868441 28428369 28868343 29198316 29758256 30668241
30898236 31018180 30548116 29928104 29508072 29088034
28518016 27578049 27318092 28028149 27948228 27388290
26978348 26868401 26938417 27288447
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