SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082230
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN AR...NW MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...
VALID 082230Z - 090000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
CONTINUES.
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...FOCUSED
MOSTLY ALONG/EAST OF A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS
IS WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.
WITH STORMS AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMING WIDESPREAD...
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW
AND 09/00-01Z APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE INTERSTATE
20/30 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. ONGOING ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK WILL REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. ITS POSSIBLE A DIVERGENT UPPER FIELD IN THE EXIT REGION
OF AN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD SUPPORT A CONSOLIDATING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF MEMPHIS BY AROUND
01-02Z.
.KERR.. 04/08/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
32679653 33219615 33919496 34269392 34529339 34709250
35069169 35119077 34808998 33749051 33219184 32829368
32649447 32389585 32509637
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