SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092312
TXZ000-OKZ000-100015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO NWRN TX AND PERHAPS SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 092312Z - 100015Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER NM AND WRN
TX IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS NWRN
MEXICO AND AZ INTO WRN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER N OF PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS REMAINED QUITE COOL OWING TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT A RELATIVELY
MOIST...ELEVATED AIR MASS IS PRESENT NWWD INTO THE TX S PLAINS WITH
850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-13 C. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS DESTABILIZING WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 10/00-10/03Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
.MEAD.. 04/09/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...
32740215 33270267 33900274 34420202 34660038 34739975
34619938 34119932 33509991 33050097
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