SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100028
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR INTO THE ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 100028Z - 100130Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF
WW/S 179 AND 180. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW
ISSUANCE.
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW /MUCH MORE SO THAN MODEL FORECASTS/
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION. A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WHICH IS
ENHANCING: 1)LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...AND 2) LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS WITH ONE SUPERCELL NEARLY
COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER HASKELL COUNTY OK...AS WELL AS
OTHER SUPERCELLS OVER HUGHES COUNTY OK AND CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES IN SERN OK.
CURRENT DEQUEEN AR PROFILER INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF THESE STORMS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
AROUND 300 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KT. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR E AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE
DEEPER-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE E OF WW/S 179
AND 180 BY 0130Z AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
.MEAD.. 04/10/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
35809434 36049409 35779321 35019295 33789361 33099433
32929492 32959528 33659522 34129495 34529437
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