SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112201
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-112330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...NWRN OH
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...
VALID 112201Z - 112330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE MI PORTION OF WW 196. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE SRN EXTENT OF
TSTMS SHIFTS INTO NWRN OH...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WW.
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW NEAR LAN WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO...AND
A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWD INTO CNTRL KY. SUPERCELLS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN CONFINED ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. FARTHER SW...WHERE DAYTIME MIXING
WAS STRONGER AND DEW POINTS FELL INTO THE 40S...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BEYOND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.
TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NWRN OH AS
CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEW POINTS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS WRN OH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ROBUST KINEMATIC FIELDS.
.GRAMS.. 04/11/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
40638491 41928432 42908381 43598322 43848263 43618215
42958240 42128290 41798280 41688218 41358194 40538282
39968378 39648473 39748524 40708485
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