Thursday, April 17, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649

ACUS11 KWNS 170627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170626
KSZ000-170800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...

VALID 170626Z - 170800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203
CONTINUES.

ZONE OF STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE NOSE
OF A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...TO THE NORTHEAST OF A TEXAS
PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW...IS THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STILL LIMITED...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT DRIER/MORE STABLE STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...AIDED BY 30-40 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. HOWEVER... MODELS SUGGEST
LIFT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...THROUGH AT LEAST
09-10Z...BEFORE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY VEERS AND WEAKENS.

UNTIL THEN...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AND...DESPITE ELEVATED STORM
BASES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...EVEN TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE
FRONT...APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

.KERR.. 04/17/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37190101 37850132 38470101 38989960 39449793 39529658
39279579 38389617 37579714 37199835 37049968 37030070

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