SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210308
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-210415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC AND SERN VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...
VALID 210308Z - 210415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.
REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4Z AS SCHEDULED.
BY THEN...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW NO LONGER WILL
BE NECESSARY.
SFC MESOANALYSES AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AS OF 250Z SHOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONSLOW COUNTY NC NEWD ACROSS EWD AREA THEN NWD
THROUGH CHOWAN COUNTY NC AND SUFFOLK VA. AIR MASS BEHIND THAT
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY...NO LONGER POSES TORNADO
THREAT...AND CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW AS ALREADY HAS BEEN DONE PER
COORDINATION W/MHX. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH BAND OF
CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT FROM NC OUTER BANKS NEAR HSE...WHICH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE OFFSHORE...AND MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS ACROSS SRN
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER THIS AREA
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVIATE SOMEWHAT OFF PREVAILING SSE-NNW ALIGNED MEAN WIND VECTOR AND
OFF PRE-EXISTING MESOBETA SCALE CONVERGENCE AXES OF SIMILAR
ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONALLY BASED MODIFICATIONS TO BOTH
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS GRADUALLY
ARE BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE SFC...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO REDUCED TORNADO
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TIME.
..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...
34677710 35867685 37317700 38027690 38217619 37937535
37127588 36937600 36197572 35687546 35147553 35257561
35117591 34797635 34507653 34677660 34697687
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