Monday, April 21, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0681

ACUS11 KWNS 220338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220338
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-220545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...NWRN MO....N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 220338Z - 220545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
DSM...10 S STJ...TOP...15 NW EMP...PNC THEN SWWD TO NEAR CSM. MOST
OF OK SEGMENT OF FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY BUT MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT SWD
AGAIN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS FCST S OF CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION OVER S-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
LINE STILL IS EVIDENT FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION IN CHASE COUNTY
KS...SWD TO NWRN OSAGE COUNTY OK.

PAIR OF LEFT-/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED INVOF KS/OK
BORDER..WITH RIGHTWARD DEVIANT MEMBER MOVING EWD ALONG KS/OK LINE AS
OF 3Z. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
REGION...WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH 150-300
J/KG DERIVED FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...VWP AND HKL PROFILER.
LEFT MOVER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD
SRN GREENWOOD COUNTY...BUT MAY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SOON AMIDST
STRENGTHENING SBCINH. INITIAL CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS OVER NERN KS --
NEAR ERN PORTION FLINT HILLS....WERE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL SFC
HEATING AS WELL AS SOME APPARENT CONVERGENCE INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE.
SBCINH IS STRENGTHENING OVER THIS REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. IR CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE
NO GROWING/DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...THOUGH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS BEHIND FRONT OVER MORRIS/CHASE/GEARY COUNTIES MAY
WARRANT SCRUTINY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT DEVELOP WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...PORTIONS WW MAY BE
CANCELED...ESPECIALLY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36209606 36179811 36999816 37009782 38149762 38179736
38509732 38689669 39479687 39449607 39929617 39969526
40399561 40029419 39439423 39469460 39149458 38999501
37069511 36959582

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