SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220614
MOZ000-KSZ000-220745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...
VALID 220614Z - 220745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE E OF WW
211 PAST 07Z. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER PLATTE AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES IN NWRN
MO AND BOURBON...CRAWFORD...NEOSHO AND LABETTE COUNTIES IN SERN KS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND ALONG SWLY 30-40 KT LLJ AXIS.
GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN OBSERVED IN LOCAL RADAR DATA COUPLED WITH
PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS BECOME RATHER
STRONG...AND THAT THE ONGOING STORMS HAVE LIKELY BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTMS
EARLY THIS MORNING EWD THROUGH WRN MO. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SWLY LLJ WILL BEGIN TO VEER AND WEAKEN
THROUGH 22/09Z WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING E/NE OF
PRIMARY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..MEAD.. 04/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
37109539 37589569 39099509 39629472 39769401 39319340
37779378 37149421 37029457
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