SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230701
OKZ000-TXZ000-230830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230701Z - 230830Z
SHOULD DEVELOPING TSTMS BECOME SUSTAINED...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER WICHITA...ARCHER AND BAYLOR
COUNTIES IN NWRN TX INTO COTTON COUNTY IN SWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING VERY NEAR TO SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN TX NEWD ALONG A FSI TO TUL LINE.
HOWEVER...RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPING TSTMS ARE
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ WHICH IS
INTENSIFYING FROM W-CNTRL TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER PRESENT TSTMS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED...THOUGH 23/00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL OVER MAINLY WRN OK BETWEEN 23/06-/23/12Z. AIR MASS ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING OWING
TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 04/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
33519864 33469937 34139966 35369965 35919951 36249855
36299787 35949749 35199719 34679716 33789760
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