SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282028
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-282200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NC...SOUTHEAST VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 242...
VALID 282028Z - 282200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 242 CONTINUES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. THESE STORMS ARE
IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE MESOLOW ANALYZED AT 20Z NEAR RIC.
LATEST VAD DATA SUGGESTS THAT ENHANCED BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
THAN FORECAST. KAKW VAD INDICATED 3KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2 PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF STORMS. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES IN THE
ORF/ECG AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
FARTHER NORTH IN PARTS OF EASTERN VA/EASTERN MD/DE...LINE OF
CONVECTION MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY /VIRTUALLY NO CG LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY/ SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN IN CURRENT WATCH AREA.
..HART.. 04/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...
36317754 37857684 38397567 38117444 35417538 34807700
34997797 35527821
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