SWODY1
SPC AC 161551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
VALID 161547Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF FL PNHDL/SRN
GA INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE...
RETRANSMITTED PER REQUEST
...ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER TO WLY AND WEAKEN IN WAKE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE RETURN OF
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF
COASTAL AREA. EXISTING MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FROM 60-64
WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION WHICH...ALONG WITH DIABATIC
HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER Q-G FORCING ATTENDING THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL
ZONE...SUGGESTING DEEP CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DESPITE THE
MODEST AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL EXIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL THROUGH S GA...
PLUME OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THIS REGION.
OBSERVED DATA SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS PLUME...WITH
EXPANSIVE MCC DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS MCC WILL AMPLIFY MCV/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIKELY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SRN BRANCH OF WLYS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF
BY EARLY FRIDAY...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. GOES SOUNDER AND 12Z SOUNDINGS
DEPICT LARGE PLUME OF NEAR 2" PW OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH LOWER 70F
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH ANY
AMOUNT OF HEATING.
MODELS DO INCREASE THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...MOST LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. REGARDLESS...MODERATELY STRONG WSLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW WITH 35 TO 45 KT BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS POSSIBLE MCS
TRACKS NEWD ACROSS SRN GA INTO FAR SRN SC THROUGH THE DAY.
..SPC.. 05/16/2008
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