Tuesday, May 13, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 131337
SWODY1
SPC AC 131334

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND
PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO AND WRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO
THE MID MS VLY...

CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E THIS PERIOD...WITH FURTHER EVOLUTION
TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE SRN MEMBER...NOW CLOSING OFF OVER
SRN UT...SHOULD DROP S INTO AZ LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING E INTO SRN
NM EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NRN MEMBER NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD
REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY.


AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS WILL
CONTINUE E/SE TO A WRN MI/SE MO/NE TX/SW TX/SE NM LINE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. S OF THE FRONT...DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM N CNTRL
OK INTO S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY. THE FEATURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN
BY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK AND N TX...AND MAY RETREAT W ACROSS
CNTRL AND S TX TONIGHT.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO MID MS VLY...
BLENDED PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25/ NOW IN PLACE FROM
SRN OK SWD INTO CNTRL AND E TX. BROAD SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO SE KS AND SRN/CNTRL MO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COUPLED WITH MODERATE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW
AHEAD OF WRN STATES TROUGH AND STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP WILL YIELD
A THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SVR STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING UPON DETAILS OF CONVECTION
INITIATION RELATED TO STOUT EML CAP...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND
STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CORRIDORS
OF FAIRLY CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY AMIDST MORE WIDELY SCTD EVENTS.

SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF MO AND AR INTO
IL...WRN KY AND PERHAPS WRN TN THROUGH THIS AFTN...ALONG ERN EDGE OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
ENHANCE LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER/ POSSIBLY SVR
STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND COULD EVOLVE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS INVOF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT... INITIALLY
FROM SE KS/WRN MO INTO CNTRL OK...AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRY LINE
INTO N TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY BREACHED. STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH
SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND
2000 J/KG AS FAR N AS SE KS.

ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN/BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM TX/OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY AS BROAD
CURRENT OF SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT...40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW PERSISTS
AHEAD OF WRN TROUGH. COUPLED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND QUALITY
OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. A THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONG-LIVED/MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT
MIGHT FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS OR
CLUSTERS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE AR...SE OK AND CNTRL/E TX.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY INVOF
RETREATING DRY LINE IN CNTRL OR NW TX AS UPR LOW EDGE E INTO NM AND
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD. WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE...SOME THREAT LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND AR.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/13/2008

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