SWODY1
SPC AC 090100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NRN OK
AND VICINITY...
...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO PARTS OF GA/CENTRAL AL...
WHILE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS MOST
OF THE SOUTHEAST...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NC AND VA...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WHICH CONTINUES
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS TN/KY ATTM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS MOIST/UNSTABLE...WITH EVENING GREENSBORO NC RAOB INDICATING
NEARLY 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE AVAILABLE CAPE...EVENING SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FLOW
FIELD WHICH VEERS/INCREASES IN HEIGHT -- QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS BACKED/SELY. THIS THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT.
...PORTIONS OF KS/NRN OK AND VICINITY...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS -- THE STRONGEST ACROSS SWRN KS ATTM -- HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN FAR SWRN KS.
EVENING DDC RAOB INDICATED AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND A
VERY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT...RESULTING IN A SHEAR
PROFILE HIGHLY-SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGLY-ROTATING/LONG-LIVED STORMS.
INDEED...A LARGE SUPERCELL CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KS
WHICH HAS PRODUCED TENNIS BALL-SIZED HAIL IN THE PAST HOUR.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
..GOSS.. 05/09/2008
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