DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100105
SWODY1
SPC AC 100102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
CENTRAL TX...

...TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN TN ATTM WITH AIRMASS
FEATURING ROUGHLY 500 TO 750 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. STORMS ARE
BEING AIDED BY VERY STRONG WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN WV/WRN VA...WHERE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

ATTM...INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT E OF THE APPALACHIANS SUCH
THAT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE WRN CAROLINAS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT. THREAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING SLOWLY OUT OF TN AND E
OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH TIME.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SMALL/BOWING STORM CLUSTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB
ATTM...INTO A CAPPED/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS -- WITH THIS CLUSTER...WILL DROP THE SLIGHT RISK AND
MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

...THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND VICINITY...
SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL TX INVOF THE HILL COUNTRY...WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING INVERSION -- WHICH SHOULD
STRENGTHEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING -- WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS AWAY FROM THE ONGOING CLUSTER.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY LAST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2008

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