Monday, May 5, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...EASTERN NM AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO MUCH OF KS AND PORTIONS OF
NEB/OK...
A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MOST NOTABLY FROM FAR
EASTERN NM INTO NORTHWEST TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AS
OF 01Z. OVERALL TENDENCY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE FOR
SEMI-ORGANIZED STRONG-SEVERE MCS CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE...EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/OK PANHANDLE...AND MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO ADJACENT OK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW/INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER
NORTH...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP/EXPAND LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH A PRIMARY
RISK OF HAIL ACROSS KS INTO NEB.

...CAROLINAS...
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE AND STORMS SPREAD OFF THE COAST.

..GUYER.. 05/06/2008

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