SWODY1
SPC AC 051607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...WEST TX/EASTERN NM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CA...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS TX ARE TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO
WEST TX AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE IN THIS AREA...ALLOWING RAPID
DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 J/KG. A COMBINATION OF WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND RATHER WEAK CAP INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO
WEST TX THIS EVENING. RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT CAPE...AND 30-40 KNOT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
...SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS...
FARTHER NORTH...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA
SUGGEST LESS INSTABILITY/MOISTURE THAN FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
...EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY JET MAX
NOSING INTO SC. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL OVERSPREAD
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS
AREA...TRACKING OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO AS STORMS APPROACH COAST
AND INTO HIGHER THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS TX TODAY. DESPITE BEING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. LATER TONIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST A RISK OF ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO
SOUTH TX. THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
..HART/JEWELL.. 05/05/2008
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