SWODY1
SPC AC 190050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER SERN TN
AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 200-500 J/KG. ACCOMPANYING WIND
PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR WHICH HAS SUPPORTED BRIEF ROTATION IN A FEW CELLS.
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED...DIURNAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN NW-SE FASHION ACROSS ERN MT WITH INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE LIKELY
BEING AIDED BY RISING BRANCH OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
OCCURRING ALONG 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. 00Z
GGW SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROXIMITY THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY THROUGH 650 MB AND
SUBSTANTIAL T-TD SPREADS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...A COUPLE OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED WITH THE ONGOING
STORMS.
WHILE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
PERHAPS NEB TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OWING TO THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
..MEAD.. 05/19/2008
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