SWODY1
SPC AC 171958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VALLEY...
MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTS...CURRENTLY
TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO NRN MN...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 VALUES OF -22 TO -28C/
ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SINCE
THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS.
...SERN NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF W TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL TX MOVING SWWD. MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE SWD AND SEWD
TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE WRN AND ERN
PERIPHERIES OF THIS UPPER FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED
STRONGER N-NELY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM ERN INTO SRN NM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK /MUCAPE AOB 500
J/KG/...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 AROUND -16 C/ AND SURFACE
HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH
STILL ISOLATED...IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...GIVEN
INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.
THIS OUTLOOK HAS ADDED LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST. TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION.
..PETERS.. 05/17/2008
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