SWODY1
SPC AC 281605
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2008
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
NERN COLORADO...
...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING NWD
CENTRAL U.S. LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES HAS SPREAD COOLER
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN STATES WITH GULF
MOISTURE NOW WELL S OF THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES.
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IS AN
AREA WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE
RIDGE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN THE SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST.
...NEW MEXICO...
LOW LEVEL SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. STRONG HEATING WILL MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE TO
MOSTLY OVER AND E OF MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
50S...MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH THE PREVAILING
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FORECASTED
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A TORNADO THREAT E SLOPES OF NRN NM MOUNTAINS
WHERE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST.
...NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY...
BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW MOIST AIRMASS BACK TOWARD
REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S OVER EASTERN
CO/WY THROUGH THE EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
FULL SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY
LATER TODAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT OF
A FEW SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A SMALL THREAT OF A TORNADO GIVEN THE FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES AMIDST THE STRONG SWLY FLOW. STORMS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT.
FARTHER TO THE NW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE NUMEROUS IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD
THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..HALES/DARROW.. 05/28/2008
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