SWODY2
SPC AC 160548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SWD INTO FL...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
WHILE BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW ATTM.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 50 F/ AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BENEATH ROUGHLY -20 C H5 TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MINIMAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN
STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT/JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST-MOVING LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY. WITH STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS AREA /INCLUDING MID-LEVEL WLYS ROUGHLY
50 TO 60 KT ATOP THE WARM SECTOR/ SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS TO EXIST. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
...FL PENINSULA...
WHILE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK AS WLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POSSIBLY ENHANCED NEAR AN
EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE...AND WITH MODERATE /NEAR 40 KT/ WLYS
LINGERING AT MID LEVELS...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/S FL.
..GOSS.. 05/16/2008
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