SWODY2
SPC AC 250600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SERN U.S.
RIDGE.
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE FRONT -- EXTENDING WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO
SINK MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN KS AND INTO MO
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
THROUGH THE DAY W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS KS AND SWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT --
FORECAST TO LIE W-E ACROSS KS THROUGH THE DAY...AIDED BY 2000 TO
3000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES/WRN OK INVOF THE DRYLINE...WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE AS
FAR S AS THE TRANSPECOS REGION/TX BIG BEND AREA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...MODERATE/VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MOST LIKELY ACROSS KS INVOF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY SHOULD BE
ENHANCED.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND A SLOW SWD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS -- AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT -- SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
STORMS -- LIKELY INCLUDING ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION -- SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF MO AND NEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKE REGION...AHEAD OF ESEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. ONGOING
THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS.
MEANWHILE...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE DEGREE OF ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER. WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ENEWD ON WSWLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AS FAR NEWD AS PA/NY...SO EXPECT THE
COMBINATION OF ONGOING STORMS AS WELL AS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM MO ENEWD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
WLY/SWLY FLOW FORECAST IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN
UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITY ONCE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK
AREA -- CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED.
..GOSS.. 05/25/2008
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