Wednesday, May 28, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280557
SWODY2
SPC AC 280556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SD/NEB EWD
ACROSS SRN MN/IA/WRN WI/NWRN IL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN/DEAMPLIFY WITH
TIME...AS PIECES OF THE WRN TROUGH BEGIN EJECTING EWD ATOP THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...AND THE ERN TROUGH CONTINUES EWD/NEWD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD ZONE OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WSWLYS SHOULD EXTEND FROM CA ENEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW-PRESSURE IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EWD
TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. BY
30/12Z...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN MN/IA WSWWD
INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.

...SD/NEB EWD INTO SRN MN/IA/WRN WI/NWRN IL...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LINGERING NOCTURNAL
JET. AS THE JET VEERS/DECREASES IN INTENSITY THROUGH
MIDDAY...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO LIKEWISE DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD -- AIDED
BY DESTABILIZATION AWAY FROM AREAS STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.
ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
/REACHING 50-PLUS KT AT H5 BY LATE AFTERNOON/ WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS IS
EXPECTED.

LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AS CONVECTION SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.

AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE FEATURES SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING
EWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR
MORE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/28/2008

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