SWODY2
SPC AC 161724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA
INTO THE WRN PART OF NRN ONTARIO...IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH THE WRN/SRN
PERIPHERIES OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN THE WEST...A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER CA...WITH THE NRN EXTENT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS
WA/ORE/ID INTO BC AS A PACIFIC TROUGH LOCATED CURRENTLY AT 40N/157W
REACHES WRN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING SWD INTO FL AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHILE FARTHER N A COLD
FRONT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOW.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 50 F/ AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MINIMAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN
STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST-MOVING LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAINS LIKELY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. STRONG AND
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THIS AREA AS 50-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FAST MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A
WSWLY 40 KT LLJ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED DURING PEAK
HEATING SUGGEST THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH THIS OUTLOOK MAINTAINING LOW /5%/ SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
...FL PENINSULA...
AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST
WITH DAY TIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL FL. ALTHOUGH DEEP WLY WIND FIELD WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER TSTMS... AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..PETERS.. 05/16/2008
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