SWODY3
SPC AC 250728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S./ERN PACIFIC THIS
PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS. HOWEVER...A SECOND TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIG
SEWD AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS SEWD...SURFACE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO PA AND THEN WSWWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY SWD...AND BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES AND THEN WNWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW INVOF SERN OK/N
TX.
...THE NORTHEAST U.S./MID-ATLANTIC WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
LINGERING SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BUT IT -- AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT -- SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...STORMS ONGOING FURTHER SW ALONG THE FRONT -- FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS WWD INTO THE PLAINS -- SHOULD CONTINUE/SHIFT SEWD
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HINDER HEATING FROM ROUGHLY THE MID MS VALLEY EWD ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT ONLY LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT FROM SERN AR/SERN MO/NRN MS ENEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.
FURTHER W...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SWD ACROSS OK. WITH MOST CONVECTION LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED SEWD
ACROSS KS/NERN OK EARLIER IN THE DAY...AMPLE HEATING MAY OCCUR TO
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK AND
VICINITY. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SURFACE SLYS
VEERING/INCREASING TO 25 TO 45 KT FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS WOULD
RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL OR POSSIBLY ROTATING
STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND VICINITY.
..GOSS.. 05/25/2008
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