SWOD48
SPC AC 160853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH A
LARGE MEAN TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
FROM DAY 6 ONWARD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN...AS BOTH BEGIN TO PROGRESS THE
ERN TROUGH EWD. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY IN THE DETAILS
OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE ERN FEATURE -- WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
MEANWHILE...THE ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF TO LINGER OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NEW ENGLAND...AND THUS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE -- WHILE BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...DRASTIC MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING ANY SEVERE AREAS THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 05/16/2008
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