Wednesday, May 28, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280859
SWOD48
SPC AC 280858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2008

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES BEGINNING DAY
4 AND 5...AND THEN INCREASING EXPONENTIALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BOTH MODELS WOULD HINT THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST INVOF THE ERN SEABOARD DAY 4 /SAT. MAY 31/...AND PERHAPS WWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...THOUGH TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT DIFFERS
AMONG THE TWO MODELS.

THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT DAY 5 ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DAY 5...WITH
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST DAY 6. DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS THEN INCREASE FURTHER DAYS 7 AND 8 -- AND THUS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO FORECASTING AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE LOW THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/28/2008

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