Friday, May 30, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300847
SWOD48
SPC AC 300846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...D4 /MON JUN 2ND/...

LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO
NRN ROCKIES. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE OVERALL POTENTIAL IS TOO
MARGINAL TOO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

...D5 /TUE JUN 3RD/...

THESE DATA REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY
INITIALLY STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH WITH ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT.

...D6 /WED JUN 4TH/ THROUGH D8 /FRI JUN 6TH/...

THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A POTENTIALLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
ALSO EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 05/30/2008

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