SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022005
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IL INTO SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022005Z - 022200Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
A 90-100 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS...TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. AND...MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF DEEP IOWA SURFACE CYCLONE...ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAVE ALLOWED FOR INCREASING INSOLATION WITHIN A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS.
ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IS STILL
WEAK...THIS COULD INCREASE TOWARD 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND AT LEAST A NARROW BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY
TO FORM...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA BY
22-23Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
LINE...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/SHEAR ALSO LIKELY TO ENLARGE/
STRENGTH AS A 60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 05/02/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
41549055 42399038 42738894 42378815 41848781 40758765
40178772 39698850 39758923 40108980
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