MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0786

ACUS11 KWNS 051642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051641
NCZ000-SCZ000-051745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN SC...SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051641Z - 051745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW IS LIKELY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE SC
COAST...JUST S OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS DRAPED OVER NRN
SC/SRN NC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER CNTRL
SC WHERE NO CAPPING REMAINS...WHILE AREAS TO THE N WERE SLOWER TO
WARM DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.

MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF CHS SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR 16Z CONDITIONS YIELDS NOT ONLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST WITH NWD EXTENT WITH A TIGHT MID
LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. THUS...WHILE CHS SOUNDING DOES SHOW
COOL ENOUGH PROFILES FOR HAIL EVEN GIVEN MID 50S DEWPOINT...A
GREATER HAIL THREAT LIKELY EXISTS OVER NRN SC AND SRN NC...WHERE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXISTS.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CONVERGE...WITH THE PRIMARY
FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT OVER NRN SC/SRN NC. STORMS THAT FORM HERE
WILL MOVE PRIMARILY IN A SEWD DIRECTION. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/LONG LIVED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL PERHAPS UP TO 1.50-2.00 IN
DIAMETER. STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALSO SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ONCE STORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.

..JEWELL.. 05/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

32637992 34078149 34658186 35128141 35328058 35297988
34887884 34267766 33757794 33797859 33317910 33087914
32837945

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