MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0787

ACUS11 KWNS 051808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051807
TXZ000-NMZ000-051900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SW/W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051807Z - 051900Z

TSTMS WITH SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT; WW
POSSIBLE.

IN THE LAST TWO HOURS...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE NM. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ON WRN EDGE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SPREADING NNW ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS AHEAD OF UPR LOW NOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CST OF BAJA CA. SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHALLOW HIGH-LVL CONVECTIVE CIRRUS NOW MOVING NEWD INTO ERN NM.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY MARK AN AREA OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
...MOISTURE...AND ASCENT WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT COULD FOSTER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BOTH SWD INTO FAR W
TX AND N TOWARD NE NM.

15-20 KT SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL OVERLAY MODERATE /30-35 KT/ SW TO
WSWLY MID-LVL WINDS ON FAR ERN PERIPHERY OF BAJA LOW. THIS WILL
YIELD 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...
INCREASING MOISTURE...CONTINUED SFC HEATING...AND ABSENCE OF STRONG
LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENEWD IN
A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BAND THROUGH MID EVENING.

..CORFIDI.. 05/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31840286 31930527 34740514 35790431 36040269 35260162
33800152

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