SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070150
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-070315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO
WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 267...269...
VALID 070150Z - 070315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 267...269...CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 267 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z -- THIS WATCH WILL BE REPLACED
PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. TORNADO WATCH 269 CONTINUES UNTIL
06Z.
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST TX
THIS EVENING...WHILE A SMALL MCS/EXPANDING COLD POOL CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK VICINITY IN BETWEEN THE
LUBBOCK/AMARILLO/CHILDRESS AREAS AS OF 0145Z. FARTHER WEST...STORMS
HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPONDING/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AZ/NORTHERN MEXICO
BORDER PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
MOST OF FAR EASTERN NM INTO A LARGE PART OF WEST TX HAS NOT BEEN
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED GIVEN THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL MODE
EARLIER...AND WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT THIS
EVENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WELL-ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING LATE TONIGHT WILL
FAVOR THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR WW 267
PRIOR TO 03Z. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK/WESTERN PART OF
NORTH TX WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
OWING TO THE UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS.
..GUYER.. 05/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
31270462 33410456 36040355 36800230 36489989 35829898
34599871 33169889 31179957 29860091 30000354 30510437
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