SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070213
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-070315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...IA...ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...
VALID 070213Z - 070315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266
CONTINUES.
QLCS/S STRETCHING FROM NERN IA TO S-CNTRL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE E/SEWD GENERALLY OUTSIDE OF WW 266. A DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PROPENSITY FOR WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL WW/S REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
AS OF 0200Z...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL QUASI-LINEAR
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL. OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS MESSY GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED AND THE
LINE NEAR TQE OVERRIDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM NERN/CNTRL IA MCS.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUB-STANDARD QUALITY OF
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS /PER 00Z TOP AND DVN RAOBS/...THE MAINTENANCE OF
A SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS UNCERTAIN. STILL WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LINES...AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 05/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
41309691 41789618 42789525 42749411 42859281 43439158
43289087 42289054 41719094 41569238 41289391 40669505
40009690 40829706
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