SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160618
TXZ000-160745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160618Z - 160745Z
TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND OCCASIONALLY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH EARLY TODAY. A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS/STRONG INSTABILITY WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ASCENT
ACROSS THIS FRONT WAS BEING GENERATED/SUSTAINED BENEATH ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET DOWNSTREAM FROM EXTENSIVE POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF CNTRL U.S. ATTM. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTING RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW
MOVING INTO STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES FROM NRN MEXICO...AS WELL AS
ARC OF STORMS WITH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS SPREADING EAST TOWARD CRP
AREA.
GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FEEDING THIS INTO ACTIVITY...AND
FORECASTS OF CONTINUING ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK POST-FRONTAL NLY/ELY FLOW
WAS TOPPED BY STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..CARBIN.. 05/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
25789720 25679806 25839905 26459928 26889925 27699835
28359788 28019700 27119730
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