SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161255
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PNHDL...SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161255Z - 161430Z
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST AND INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PNHDL TO PARTS OF SRN AL AND SWRN GA THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THESE
AREAS. CURRENTLY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THE SEVERE WIND THREAT FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE.
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MESOLOW HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATED ACROSS SRN AL/MOBILE AREA. ENHANCED INFLOW
OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE NERN GULF...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF GULF MCS...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE FL
PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING GIVEN LACK OF INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT.
TLH SOUNDING INDICATES ABUNDANT MOISTURE...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES...AND WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTING MULTICELLULAR STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH APPROACH
OF MID/UPPER WAVE AND POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
RESPECTIVELY. THUS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WET MICRO-BURST/DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES AND A WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.
..CARBIN.. 05/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
30678316 29508500 29628782 30048809 30458788 31258686
31678603 32058446 31908332
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